NEW YORK - In the next decade, China will have the largest number of electric car owners than anywhere in the world, even if fuel-powered cars remain the preferred option, said Xavier Mosquet, senior partner of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a consultancy agency.

According to a recent BCG study, 13 percent of car owners in China are willing to spend between $4,500 to $6,000 more to purchase a green car, as compared to 9 percent of car owners in Europe and 6 percent in America.

Rising gasoline prices, government incentives for green car purchases and emerging middle-class consumers will account for the popularity of green cars in China.

"Green vehicles will be a way to edge against the sharp increase in oil prices in China. We also believe that the Chinese government will support, to a certain extent, the green vehicles, which will be made more available due to the significant increase in the price of oil. The willingness to pay for green cars is definitely linked to the high purchasing power of the Chinese consumers," Mosquet said.

The study was conducted in 20 major cities in China, such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Tianjin, and excludes the rural areas.

"One of the rationales was that Chinese consumers in the cities have higher purchasing power and are more willing to spend (money) on green cars. Many car buyers in rural areas would be first-time car buyers. Based on our own experience, first-time car buyers would not be as willing to buy green cars," Mosquet said.

The study concludes that most consumers would prefer a fuel-powered vehicle because of the lower ownership costs. A green car typically costs 20 percent to 30 percent (or $5,000 to $10,000) more than a fuel-powered car. The price of a 20 kWh battery, necessary for a pure battery electric vehicle, costs an additional $9,600 per vehicle.

The fuel-powered vehicle is also preferred because it could cut carbon emissions by 40 percent through improvements to conventional technologies, according to the study.

Contrary to popular belief, electric vehicles are not necessarily better for the environment. If the electricity used to charge the green car is generated mainly from fuel or coal, it still harmful to the environment.

"Green vehicles would be better in countries where there is a keen source of electricity generated from nuclear power. In places where the electricity is mainly generated from coal, such as China, efficiency of green cars in terms of carbon emissions reduction is only 15 percent," Mosque said.

"In a country that is heavily dependent on fuel and coal energy, the impact of improving the gasoline engine for carbon emission reduction is up to 40 percent, which is higher than what you can gain by developing the electric car market."

Still, the use of electric cars would benefit China as it represents 15 percent emissions reduction for the country as a whole, Mosque said.

The Chinese government has been promoting the purchase of electric vehicles by offering incentives, such as subsidies to car buyers and tax exemptions for owners of electric and hybrid vehicles.

The government's efforts to promote green cars may have raised consumers' enthusiasm for the technology, but the 13 percent of green vehicles on the roads in 2020 won't meet the government's goal of 5 million electric vehicles - passenger cars, trucks and buses - by 2020.

In 2010, only about 2,000 electric cars were sold despite incentives worth up to $9,000, said Marco Gerrits, a Beijing-based partner who heads BCG's automative practice in Greater China.

According to a study by Berkeley Lab's China Energy Group, the increased use of electric cars, coupled with a significant drop in reliance on coal for electricity generation and a big expansion in the use of nuclear power, will help drive down China's carbon emissions.

As China's economy continues to grow, its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are expected to keep soaring. But, according to Mark Levine, senior staff scientist and founder at Berkeley Lab's China Energy Group, when China becomes a fully matured and industrialized country, between 2030 to 2035, the rate of energy growth will diminish and eventually become zero.

"China will continue to build a carbon-free or low-carbon market. Although coal will be a major source of electricity power for some time, some of the electricity sources will not involve in emissions. China is planning on building many power plants that are not coal dependent," Levin said.

China Daily