Some politicians in the West are also using the military action in Libya as a means to extricate themselves from their current political predicaments.

In the US, the ongoing social crises as well as public demonstrations in Wisconsin and other states have plunged many state organs into functional paralysis. The government has also suffered a setback on the issue of the federal budget because of opposition from Congress. As a result, US President Barack Obama's approval rating has declined to a record low since he took office. His declining popularity, if not curbed, will pose a severe challenge to Obama's bid for re-election. In this context, a limited military action in Libya is possibly seen as an effective way to help Obama to break away from the current unfavorable political situation.

France, the spearhead of the latest Western action in Libya, is also suffering from widespread social problems. With strikes spreading, President Nicolas Sarkozy still trailed his political rival Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front in a latest opinion poll, despite several cabinet reshuffles. His party hopes that France's military action in Libya will help boost Sarkozy's popularity ahead of next year's elections.

Given their unparalleled military pre-eminence, the military action by the multinational coalition in Libya is capable of producing a power change in the North African nation. But in view of Gadhafi's clout within Libya and his announced determination to unite all the people in the fight against Western aggression, the coalition forces will in all likelihood refrain from launching a large-scale and highly intensive ground offensive.

In the face of the much more powerful Western military forces, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Gadhafi will adopt a flexible stance by choosing to hold talks with the opposition parties and asking for mediation from other major powers and even from the UN.

The author is deputy secretary-general of the China Council for National Security Policy Studies.

(China Daily 03/22/2011 page8)