Today it is still too early to conclude what effects the Fukushima incident will have on global climate conferences; but we can analyze the role of nuclear energy in the process, and the performance of substitute technologies.

The global objective of cutting carbon emissions is not directly related to exploiting nuclear energy, and nuclear energy's role in cutting carbon emissions should not be overstated, as there are many other low-carbon technologies.

Therefore, although strengthening safety measures and resetting the objectives might bring difficulties and increased costs to cutting carbon emissions, any cut backs in nuclear plans can be filled by developing renewable energy sources and increasing their efficiency.

For China especially, the key to realizing its 2020 carbon-cutting objective is not nuclear energy, but economic transformation and structural adjustment.

Reviewing nuclear energy plans would benefit such renewable energy sources as solar and wind. The development of clean coal technology and exploitation of natural gas and coal-bed gas could also benefit. According to recent reports, China is setting new objectives for renewable energy sources, and might raise the photovoltaic power capacity objective in 2020 from 20 million kW to 50 million kW.

The development of these energy sources is based on the premise that nuclear energy development will be slowed after the Fukushima accident. But currently most countries are only temporarily suspending approval of new nuclear plants while they wait for the long-term effects of the Japan disaster to become clearer. In fact, the Fukushima crisis might make countries introduce stricter safety standards and more investment, which could promote nuclear energy development in the long run.

To sum up, the nuclear power plant crisis in Japan could have a long-term effect upon nuclear energy development, but its impact on carbon emission cuts and efforts to mitigate climate change should be viewed from the proper perspective. It is the costs, technological progress and qualities of renewable energy sources that will determine their development.

The author is a professor from Renmin University of China.

China Forum

(China Daily 04/13/2011 page8)