Relations between mainland and Taiwan still face challenges despite increased dialogue and exchanges

Political and security relations across the Taiwan Straits have markedly improved since the change in ruling party in Taiwan in 2008. The cross-Straits situation has on the whole moved toward stability and relaxation and this significant improvement has enjoyed extensive support and praise from the international community.

Seeking peaceful cross-Straits development has become the mainstream consensus of the two sides. Since the spring of 2008, on the basis of adhering to the 1992 Consensus, leaders of the two sides have reached agreement on promoting peaceful development, building mutual trust, shelving disputes and creating win-win opportunities, thus laying down an important foundation for the two sides to build up the necessary mutual political trust.

In the past three years, according to the principles of "economics first, politics later", moving from easier to more difficult issues and making gradual and step-by-step progress, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) have rapidly resumed their consultations and made institutional arrangements for them. Full "three direct links" have been put in place; and the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has been signed, leading to increased exchanges in all fields. By the end of 2010, the two sides had already signed 15 agreements.

It is fair to say that, cross-Straits relations have experienced a historic breakthrough within a short period of time. After six decades, an enormous change has taken place and cross-Straits relations have moved from the conflicting goals of reunification and "independence" to the track of peaceful development.

However, although the two sides have already reached an important common understanding on the establishment of a peaceful development framework, there are some major differences between them in how to achieve that objective. The political positioning of cross-Straits relations remains the most difficult point. Additionally, although the improved relationship has had a positive effect on the people on both sides, a sense of estrangement and mistrust remains and will take time to eliminate.

In terms of the process of establishing a peaceful development framework, the next step will require moving from the "easy" to the "more difficult". The two sides have agreed that the priority this year is to further implement the various agreements already reached, including the ECFA, to strengthen cultural exchanges and make efforts to consolidate the results of improved relations.

This does not mean that nothing will be done to establish mutual military and security trust and further improve political ties. The two sides remain able to steadily promote exchanges between academia and retired military officers on a voluntary basis so as to have some advance discussion and research in military and security confidence-building measures and prepare for future joint research between think tanks, and second-track and first-track dialogue.

They may also continue their respective relevant business exchanges with the United States. For the latter, academia and think tanks may also explore possible political positioning of the cross-Straits relationship in a situation where the country is yet to reunite. It is noteworthy that a recent problem with the potential of serious influence on cross-Straits political and security relations is whether the US will sell the F-16C/D to Taiwan or assist it to refit the F-16A/B.

In military and security confidence building, US arms sales to Taiwan and the mainland's reported missile deployment are of serious concern to both sides. They are related and involve a third party, the US. How to resolve these two problems deserves concerted effort. Since the beginning of this year, some people in the US strategic research community have put forward some new ideas on the handling of arms sales to Taiwan and breaking the US-China security dilemma. The US government should value their opinions as they are thinking about the long-term interests of the US.

It is to be hoped that the US will honor its commitment to support the two sides of the Taiwan Straits in pursuing peaceful development and conducting political, economic and security dialogues by doing things that benefit the stability and improvement of cross-Straits relations. The US' actions in the Taiwan Straits in the coming year will have significant bearing on future cross-Straits relations and Sino-US ties.

In the light of historical experiences, in order to maintain the stability of cross-Straits relations it is necessary to enhance crisis management and improve avoidance and control of contingencies while paying attention to opportunity management. The present situation has not been achieved easily. Any policy or act that may lead to a serious reversal must be firmly opposed.

Since last year, new frictions have appeared with the issue of Taiwan's "international space". In this regard, the mainland leadership has made it clear to the Taiwan side that the issue may be resolved through consultation between ARATS and SEF.

Looking to the future the establishment of a peaceful development framework represents a new way of thinking that will enable the mainland and Taiwan to move toward a path of gradual and voluntary reunification after a long breaking-in and converging period.

The author is a research fellow with the China International Strategy Research Fund.

(China Daily 06/03/2011 page8)