Respondents worldwide believe US superpower status in decline

BEIJING - Chinese experts suggest that China's superpower status should be downplayed after the latest Pew survey, which was published on Wednesday, forecast that China has or will soon replace the United States as the world's superpower.

In the latest Pew Global Attitudes survey conducted between March 18 and May 15, most of the respondents in 15 out of 22 countries believed that China either will replace or already has replaced the United States as the world's leading superpower.

The majority of those surveyed in developing economies, such as Pakistan, Mexico and China, are optimistic that China will displace the United States as the world's dominant power.

That sentiment is also largely shared in Western Europe countries, such as France, Spain, Britain and Germany, all of which report percentages of more than 60 percent seeing China overtaking the US with the highest in France at 72 percent.

Among US respondents, the percentage has increased to 46 percent from 33 percent two years ago, while 45 percent believe China will not replace US.

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also made a similar forecast by saying that the US could lose its status as the world's largest economic power within five years. It predicted that China will overtake the US in 2016.

According to an IMF forecast, China's GDP by purchasing power parity will rise from $11.2 trillion in 2011 to $19 trillion in 2016, while the US economy will increase from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion.

However, despite the bold predictions about China's economic rise, the US is still viewed more positively compared with China. According to the Pew survey, the median percentage that gave China a favorable rating was 52 percent, eight percentage points lower than the median assessment of the US.

The survey has stirred wide discussion among Chinese Internet users. According to a poll on Huanqiu.com, an online news portal, 3311 voters - 85 percent of the respondents - as of Friday afternoon believed that China will not replace the US in terms of global hegemony.

"Even if China's GDP eventually becomes the largest worldwide, the per capita amount is less than half of the US' GDP per capita," an anonymous user wrote.

Considering the difference in population, it is natural for China's GDP to eventually surpass the US', but the world should not attach too much importance to this, said Andy Xie, an independent economist.

However, he called for attention on how to keep growth sustainable. "The immediate concern is to restructure China's own development pattern rather than compare its economic scale with other nations," he told China Daily.

"The economic expansion in recent years was mainly driven by government-led investments, and consumption has also been spurred by business and government spending," Xie said. "We should ensure the general public receives more of the fruits of development."

If the government does not curb rising inflation and the widening gap between the rich and the poor, growth may not be sustainable, he warned.

According to Shi Yinhong, director of the Center of American Studies at Renmin University of China, the survey to a great extent reflects the anxiety of US citizens over local issues, given the state of the US economy and unemployment.

"It is definitely too early to say if China is or will be a 'superpower', which is measured by more than just GDP. It is a comprehensive term that also includes military power, international influence, technology, and other soft powers," he added.

China Daily

(China Daily 07/16/2011 page7)