Greenpeace activists promote the use of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, on Nov 29 at the Durban beachfront in South Africa. UN climate talks got under way on Nov 28 in Durban amid calls for action to head off worsening drought, floods and storms. Alexander Joe / Agence France-Presse

Efforts on to end impasse over Kyoto Protocol extension, Green Climate Fund

Environment ministers from nations across the world are expected to hold further talks in Durban, South Africa, this week to end the deadlock over the Kyoto Protocol and the Green Climate Fund.

Negotiators from over 190 countries are more or less resigned to the fact that it would be unable to reach a legally binding deal on these vexed issues in Durban.

Canada's anti-Kyoto Protocol stance and threat to pull out of the treaty have added further gloom to this year's climate change talks.

The Kyoto Protocol, agreed to in 1997, is the only international treaty that sets binding greenhouse gas reduction targets for industrialized nations. Its first commitment period is scheduled to expire next year.

The Kyoto Protocol does not bind developing nations such as China and India, while some developed nations like the United States are yet to ratify the treaty. Japan, Canada and Russia have already turned down an extension of the treaty.

"The African soil cannot be the burial ground for the Kyoto Protocol and we want a second commitment of the Kyoto Protocol up to 2020," said Seyni Nafo, spokesperson for the 54-nation Africa Group.

Canadian Environment Minister Peter Kent refused to "confirm or deny" the report that Canada had already decided to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, but maintained that it was "an option".

"The (Canada) news comes at a time when there are a lot of uncertainties regarding the future of Kyoto Protocol. It will make the prospects even more obscure," said Su Wei, China's chief climate negotiator.

According to the latest information provided by the International Institute of Sustainable Development, Canada is currently on track to meet only 30 percent of its 2020 target, based on all current and planned federal and provincial initiatives.

By now, the European Union is the only group of developed countries that is willing to accept a second commitment period for the protocol. But it also sets the condition that a single legally binding deal cover all major carbon emitters.

EU wants all nations to reach a deal for post-2020 emission reductions by 2015.

But China's chief negotiator Su feels that the new conditions are "not an efficient way" to hammer out an extension of carbon emission reduction targets.

"The new conditions are already beyond the mandate agreed to in previous talks, namely the Bali Roadmap agreed in 2007," Su said. "I think the EU is just shifting the goal post from one place to another."

China views the Kyoto Protocol as a "cornerstone" for the whole climate negotiations.

"If we cannot get a decision for the future of the second commitment period, the whole international system on climate change will be in peril," Su said. "If the Kyoto Protocol is devoid of any further commitment period, then it will cease to exist."

According to Su, China also feels that the new conditions may not be fair to developing countries. But the matter is still open for negotiations, he said.

"It's not only China that thinks like that," said Christian Teriete, a spokesman for the Global Campaign for Climate Action, a coalition of 300 non-governmental organizations.

"Most of the developing countries are insisting on a second commitment period because Kyoto is the only proper climate law we have, whereas most of the others are voluntary."

Nations like China have argued that while countries should share the responsibility to curb greenhouse gas emissions after 2020, it should be based on a scientific review on global warming to be released in 2015.

Xu Huaqing, a researcher with the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, said China is likely to make a commitment for a quantified target to limit its greenhouse gas emissions after 2020, as the world's top carbon emitter is facing more pressure from the international community.

But whether this can actually happen will depend on where the climate negotiations are heading and on China's domestic development stage by then, said Xu.

Earlier China had pledged to cut carbon emissions per unit of economic growth by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.

China's carbon emissions are still set to grow at a rapid pace in the coming years, as the country's coal-based energy structure is not likely to change in the short run, and its industrialization and urbanization will need further space for carbon emissions, according to Xu.

"The most optimistic scenario I've seen puts a peak on China's carbon emissions by around 2030," he says, "while the majority of researchers estimate the peak will come between 2035 and 2045."

"So it is more reasonable for China to set a post-2020 target to restrict its carbon emissions, rather than a reduction goal."

Observers say such an announcement is a positive sign that countries are still working hard to find a "middle ground" on the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol.

But even with a "middle ground" being formed, the chances of the US joining are slim, because it does not like any treaty that is legally binding in nature, say analysts.

Jonathan Pershing, deputy special envoy of the US delegation, faced strong criticism in Durban after he claimed that the current collective mitigation targets are sufficient to avoid a 2-degree rise in average global temperature.

"The message he delivered was that the US remains wedded to its position that avoiding runaway global warming is not urgent," says a comment written by Climate Action Network, a collective of international NGOs.

The fact that Pershing is a scientist himself, and was once involved with a Nobel Prize-winning report on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has raised even more eyebrows since his statement is in stark contrast with the latest scientific findings.

IPCC released a special report examining the link between extreme weather events and climate change. It found that climate change is indeed responsible for the increased frequency of pronounced heat waves, heavy rainfall and other destructive weather events.

The World Meteorological Organization has already predicted that this year would be the 10th warmest ever.

The countries are also expected to sign off on the Green Climate Fund, meant to channel up to $100 billion (74 billion euros) a year by 2020 to help developing states tackle climate change that is leading to rising sea levels and crop failures.

A committee completed a draft for the Fund in Cape Town last month, but Saudi Arabia and the United States expressed concerns, raising doubts whether it would be tabled in Durban.

(China Daily 12/02/2011 page3)