Experts point to more scope for enhancing ties

The summit between China and the United States in Washington, DC, last month has helped stabilize bilateral ties in the near term at least, with new agreements on trade and dialogue mechanisms offering room for further cooperation, analysts said.

During President Xi Jinping's state visit to the US from Sept 23 to 25, the two heads of state agreed to build "a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability based on respect, fairness and reciprocity". The consensus reached covers areas including trade, artificial intelligence, counternarcotics cooperation, people-to-people exchanges and future high-level engagement.

In an interview with China Daily, Sourabh Gupta, a resident senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said the relationship is "well anchored right now", though he cautioned that for now it is only "well anchored for the short term".

The repeated engagements between President Xi and US President Donald Trump have helped to anchor ties, he said.

Chris Pereira, CEO and founder of iMpact, a communications and business consulting company that helps Chinese companies expand overseas, pointed to regular leader-level contact as one of the summit's key gains.

"This summit's most important result is that it happened, and that the meetings are occurring regularly between leaders of both nations," Pereira told China Daily. "Predictable leader contact gives governments and companies greater clarity and stability for them to make longer-term decisions."

On the economic front, China and the US have agreed on reciprocal tariff reductions covering about $30 billion of imports in each direction. Gupta called the tariff move welcome, though limited compared with the overall scale of bilateral trade.

"These are all positive signs," he said. "I don't see any reason why 30 for 30 cannot become 60 for 60, maybe in six months' time. And I think that's what they should be aspiring for — taking 30 for 30 and making it 60 for 60."

Industry representatives also saw progress in agricultural trade. Carlos Salinas, executive director for East Asia at the US Soybean Export Council, said the summit had given agricultural trade "a durable foundation".

"With the strong support of President Trump and President Xi, I believe this is a durable foundation moving forward," Salinas said. "The coming months will be about building on it, not testing it."

Beyond trade, the new dialogue mechanisms, particularly on AI, have also drawn attention from experts.

According to China's Foreign Ministry, the two sides agreed to establish a China-US dialogue on AI to discuss risks and benefits, with the next dialogue scheduled for November, as well as a communication channel for AI-related incidents. Gupta said he was more optimistic about AI cooperation than investment. Both countries have a shared interest in finding ways to manage the technology, he said.

Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies also pointed to AI as an area where further cooperation may be possible. In a Sept 28 assessment, Ilaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, said the new AI dialogue could provide a useful platform in the future, depending on how it is put into practice.

Thomas J. Christensen, the center's Pritzker Chair in its Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, said there is potential for cooperation on AI because both sides have reason to be concerned about models escaping the control of engineers.

Aalok Mehta, director of CSIS' Wadhwani AI Center, highlighted the establishment of a communication channel for AI security incidents. He argued that the US and China can develop common approaches to AI safety and security without undermining their ability to compete on technological merit.

People-to-people ties could have a longer horizon than many of the immediate policy outcomes, Gupta said. He welcomed the continued emphasis on youth exchanges, travel and pandas, while saying that more could also be done at the local level in the US through schools and communities.

He said that "there's still a very significant pathway at the local level for deepening of these contacts" and said such exchanges could have "very, very long-term effects".

The summit's broader direction also reflected Xi's message during the visit that the two countries should expand cooperation and manage competition and differences. Xi said the two sides should strive for a relationship where "cooperation is the mainstay, competition is kept within proper limits, differences are managed and peace can be expected."

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com