CASS cuts China 2011 growth forecast to 9.4%

Updated: 2011-10-11 09:42


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BEIJING -- The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a major government think tank, on Oct 10 cut China's growth estimate for 2011 to 9.4 percent from a previous forecast of 9.6 percent.

CASS attributed the slowdown partly to the country's intense economic restructuring that allowed the economy to depend less on government stimulus.

In its latest report on macro economy, the think tank forecast that investments in fixed assets will grow 23.8 percent this year and consumption 17 percent. Imports will climb 26.2 percent while exports will gain 21.8 percent, which is set to trigger a third consecutive fall in China's trade surplus.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, is estimated to stand at 5.5 percent for the year, and will further ease to 4.6 percent in 2012, the report said.

CASS forecast China's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 9.2 percent in 2012 on the condition that both domestic and international environments don't worsen.

The country's economy expanded by 9.6 percent year on year in the first half of 2011. In the second quarter, China's GDP rose by 9.5 percent, tapering off slightly from the 9.7-percent growth posted in the first quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The country's CPI hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent in June. After that, the index has been staying above 6 percent despite the government's intensified cooling measures.