Daily debate in media over policy

Updated: 2012-05-30 13:31

By Huang Ying (China Daily)

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Every day, experts and analysts debate in the Chinese business media about such issues as whether a policy is being pushed too far or whether part of the market needs government regulation. Here are some examples from last week:

Just keep 'fine-tuning'

Faced by an economic slowdown, China should neither sit idle and do nothing, nor over-react, said a high-ranking economic official in an interview.

Talking to the newspaper China Economic Times, Yu Bin, head of macroeconomic research at the State Council Development Research Center, recommended that the government take more "fine-tuning" measures to keep the economy stable.

He said he is opposed to implementing a short-term stimulus program, as China did in 2009, by providing up to 4 trillion yuan ($630 billion) to help Chinese companies mitigate the effect of the global financial crisis.

But a new stimulus program, were it launched now, would not help steer the economy to a better condition

There are rising expectations that new stimulus policies will be adopted, "But such policies won't do any good", he said.

Policymakers should balance short-term considerations with medium- to long-term benefits, he said.

Yu acknowledged that last month, many economic indicators were pointing to a downward trend in industrial output, fixed-asset investment and real estate development.

Industrial output growth was 9.3 percent in April, down from 11.9 percent in March and 13.4 percent a year earlier.

Growth in fixed-asset investment slid from 20.9 percent in the first quarter to 20.2 percent in the first four months, mainly because of a slowdown in real estate investment.

Retail growth fell from 20.9 percent in the first quarter to 20.2 percent in the first four months.

Export growth was down from 8.9 percent in March to 4.9 percent in April. "The slope of export decline has been quite steep," Yu said.

But Yu said there are some bright spots, such as the relative stability of prices in contrast with last year. The consumer price index rose 3.4 percent in April, down from 3.6 percent in March.

Another good sign is that declines in the property sector are not having much effect on the overall economy, he said.

Yu urged the government to continue "fine-tuning" the economy.

In terms of fiscal policy, Yu said the government could increase some investment, mainly targeted to such projects as irrigation, power plants, high-speed railways and urban rail, as well as subsidized housing.

As for monetary policy, there is still room for more cuts in commercial lenders' required reserve ratios and interest rates. More can be done to support the private sector, particularly in providing access to loans.

Further reform could give new impetus to the development of the economy and market competition, Yu said.

Smart subsidies

On May 16, the State Council, the country's top administrative body, decided to allocate 26.5 billion yuan over the next year to subsidize the purchase of energy-saving home appliances.

The decision was described by Yu Fenghui, an independent business commentator writing for the Xinhua Daily Telegraph, as killing three birds with one stone.

The biggest "bird" was a boost to domestic consumption, especially consumer spending in rural areas.

The other birds were the introduction of a new generation of energy-efficient home appliances and a boost to China's drive to become more energy efficient and reduce carbon emissions.

Yu also proposed that the government increase and broaden its fiscal incentives for domestic consumption.

These steps should include "a large-scale tax cut" for small enterprises and individuals, lowering the prices of such basic commodities and utilities as electricity and fuel, cutting road tolls and admission fees for public parks, offering more favorable policies for small enterprises and providing them with low-interest loans, and being stricter with government agencies' office expenses.

With a rapid urbanization process, China has almost incomparable potential in consumer spending power, Yu said.

China already gained experience from consumer subsidies in the past couple of years in tapping this latent buying power.

The nation has the potential to mitigate the impact of the current slowdown in export orders and fixed-assets investment.

Dragons, tigers lead

Second-tier cities, especially provincial capitals, have been developing at a faster pace than the largest cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, noted a commentary in China Business News.

Some provinces in central and western China are likely to lead the nation in economic growth in the next few years, the commentary said, citing research by investment bank China International Capital Corp.

Of the 31 provincial-level divisions on the Chinese mainland, there are seven "small dragons" to watch, it said: Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.

Then there are eight "small tigers" - Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Henan, Hebei, Shaanxi, Jiangxi and Shanxi.

The newspaper took issue with the rising criticism of provincial and city-level development efforts in the domestic and foreign media, along with warnings of local governments' rising debt and dependence on land sale revenue.

If "a local economy can remain on the fast track, there must be a reason for doing so", the newspaper said, adding that development is by no means chaotic in such cities as Changsha in Hunan province, Hefei in Anhui province and Xi'an in Shaanxi province.

Those cities' GDP growth rates may exceed the national average by up to 6 percentage points, it noted.

Last year, as Changsha's GDP grew 14.5 percent, that of Shanghai expanded 8.2 percent and Beijing's rate was even lower, at 8.1 percent.

On the policy level, these cities have all been designated by the central government to pilot certain urban reforms.

In everyday business, the newspaper said, thanks to their traditional influence over a sizable local market, combined with new transport links to coastal regions, these cities have become attractive to more outside investors.

Fast growth in second-tier cities and provinces has been going on for years. Along with industrialization and urbanization, they will grow into the new growth engines for the nation.

huangying@chinadaily.com.cn

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