No short-term end to eurozone crisis
Updated: 2012-06-19 10:43
Editor's Note: The world may have breathed a sigh of relief at the results of the Greek election, which showed a choice to stay with the European Union.
But Chinese economists and business leaders have hastened to point out that the eurozone debt crisis is far from easing up.
On the part of China, many worries persist - ranging from a lingering slowdown in trade to a possible exodus of European capital, and even to a larger financial crisis affecting the global banking industry.
While looking forward to a more capable European leadership, many Chinese believe, as implicit from the following interviews, that China can continue to help the crisis-stricken region in one way or another.
Chinese leaders have said many times that the more Europe remains united, in spirit and in action, the more it can count on a concerted support from the international community, in which China will certainly play a due part.
Greek people have made their choice to remain in the EU. How much does it mean for the prospects of euro-debt crisis? Do you think, despite public support for the EU as we are seeing in Greece, Europe's financial and economic problems will linger and perhaps deteriorate?
What measures do you think the European Union should take to help it overcome the current crisis?
How much can China help Europe and in what way?
What can the Chinese government and companies do to lessen the impact of the economic woes in the eurozone?
Director of international economics at the Institute for International Economic Research, a think tank under the National Development and Reform Commission
The European sovereign debt crisis won't end in the short term, though the winning Greek party now supports the bailout plan. Countries in the eurozone directly beset by the crisis are likely to suffer weak economic growth in the next decade.
The election result of the Greek Parliament can help (the country) implement austerity measures and continue to take bailouts. It is also a benefit for the stabilization of the European financial system.
However, the possibility of a Greek exit has not yet been eliminated as the crisis may deepen in the next two or three years. Other countries may also have the potential to quit the eurozone, adding risks to the global economy.
The European Union needs to strengthen the European Financial Stability Fund and European Stability Mechanism, as well as build a firewall together with the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the G20.
At the same time, market-based debt restructuring should start along with financial retrenchment. To some extent, fiscal integration on the continent should be accelerated with the help of issuing eurobonds.
China can contribute to solving the problem of indebted Europe, although it mainly depends on those EU countries themselves. China may participate in the firewall building and bailout plans, under the IMF and G20.
The steady growth and reform of the Chinese economy can increase confidence of the global market, especially providing trade and investment opportunities for the EU countries, which can help them get out of their dilemma.
The Chinese government should encourage domestic companies to expand investment in Europe while improving risk management capacity. It can also inject new vitality into economic growth.
More preferential measures can be introduced to attract European companies to increase investment in China and reduce their market risks.
The Chinese government may need to lower the economic growth expectation to as low as 7 percent in order to tame inflation and leave more space for policy adjustments with the increasing uncertainties and risks from outside.
China should maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. More fiscal and monetary fine-tuning measures need to be taken to support the development of the manufacturing industry.
Encouraging expansion of the real economy such as manufacturing and stimulating domestic demand can help stabilize GDP growth while accelerating economic restructuring. What should be avoided is to expand supply recklessly.
The tight measures for the property market should not be eased soon, and more market-based reform is expected to rebalance development among different industries.