'Growth markets' to lead world economy

Updated: 2011-10-15 11:27

(Xinhua)

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HONG KONG -- China and seven other countries should be regarded as "growth markets" which will lead the prosperity of the world economy in the years to come, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Jim O'Neill said here Friday.

Creating the acronym "BRICs" ten years ago, O'Neill gave his speech titled "The changing dynamics of the world" in the UC RUSAL President's Forum hosted by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

O'Neill said in his speech that the GDP of BRICs, namely Brazil, Russia, India and China, together with Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia accounted for 23 percent of the world GDP in 2010. The proportion is expected to be more than 35 percent in 2020.

"These countries should be called as 'growth markets' rather then 'emerging markets'. They have contributed to the dramatic change in the world economy and will continue to lead the change in the next decade," said he.

According to him, China performed best in the growth markets, with its GDP accounted for 9 percent of the world last year. Goldman Sachs estimated that the figure is expected to be over 15 percent by 2020, close to the US figure.

O'Neill admitted that the growth rate of China's economy is slowing down due to the global financial crisis. However, its GDP growth is expected to remain at around 8 percent, far higher than the world average rate of about 4 percent.

"A less but sustainable growth is just China and the world want, " he commented, adding that "Someone argued that China's glory days have finished but I think it will continue to grow for another 10 years."

O'Neill believed the main challenge China is facing now is inflation. "If the inflation rate in China is heading towards 4 percent or below, the hard-landing will disappear. And it is happening now," he added.

Since the growth markets are playing more and more important roles in world economy, the economist believed they should have more votes and voices in organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He also suggested the RMB should be included in the Special Drawing Right (SDR) of the IMF.

Given their fast economic growth and large population, there will be fierce fight for natural resources among the growth markets in the future, to which should be paid close attention by policy makers.

As for the problem of European sovereign debt crisis and the possible recession of the United States, O'Neill said since crisis is inevitable, it is important for policy makers and businesses to learn from it.

"No growth of Europe doesn't necessarily lead to recession of the US," O'Neill said.