4. Will China suffer a trade deficit in 2012?

Wei Jianguo, former vice-minister of commerce

The ongoing European debt crisis will hurt China's economic growth and the nation's exports. China's exports are expected to slow down to single-digit figures in 2012 from the double digits we have been seeing. We cannot exclude the possibility that China will see a trade deficit next year.

Although the European nations are striving to rescue the economy, I am still pessimistic about the prospects. The suspension of European debt will lead to decreasing demand for China's goods and drag down China's exports, probably causing a trade deficit for 2012.

We noticed orders from the European Union shrank during the 110th Canton Fair (China's largest foreign trade fair) held in October. Chinese exporters need to transfer their focus onto emerging markets rather than just betting on developed nations.

China needn't intentionally seek a trade balance. The top priority for China is to maintain its economic growth. China's stable economic growth will be a big contribution to the worldwide economy.

Huo Jianguo, director of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce

I don't think there is any possibility that China will see a trade deficit in 2012, or even for a few years.

Although the year-on-year growth for China's exports has been on the decline during the past few months and the trend is expected to continue, we should not be too pessimistic about the prospects for China's exports.

Demand from developed nations including the United States and European Union is still there, although the growth is not robust. And China has been diversifying its markets for exports, with shipments to countries including Brazil, Russia and South Africa rising fast during the past year.

On the other hand, China's imports are not as strong as expected as the nation's economy slows down.

I expect double-digit exports growth for China will be sustained in 2012 and the nation's surplus will narrow to around $120 billion next year.

5. Will China's currency become more internationalized?

Shen Jianguang, chief economist for China with Mizuho Securities

The internationalization of the yuan can help China adjust the US dollar-based and passive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. It can also greatly enhance China's role in international trade and investment.

Meanwhile, the lift to the yuan's global profile will help upgrade China's exports and make it easy for China to adopt balanced measures to reduce trade surpluses and increase imports. The anticipation of the yuan's appreciation will help boost China's purchasing power of energy and raw material products and strengthen national and corporate competitiveness.

The internationalization of the yuan will also help boost domestic demand and help shift the growth model from being export-driven to consumption-driven.

Huang Yiping, chief economist for emerging Asia with Barclays Capital

It is the international markets rather than China itself that can determine whether the yuan is a true international currency. Overseas investors want to hold the yuan, but they are unwilling to pay in yuan.

Given the very limited investment channels for the Chinese currency, the only motivation for foreigners to hold the currency is the expectation of the yuan's further appreciation. But once the yuan loses the potential to appreciate, the international demand for the yuan may drop significantly.

Using administrative measures to push for a wider use of the yuan is not going to bring real benefits to China. The focus of China's currency reform should still be on the reform of the exchange rate system, the gradual opening of the capital account and the development of yuan-denominated assets.

6. Will the yuan appreciate further or depreciate?

Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Securities Co Ltd

Although in recent months the trade surplus of China has declined dramatically and capital outflows have occurred, we predict in 2012 the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will continue to appreciate moderately.

The Chinese government may still hesitate to revalue the yuan faster and more dramatically because it worries that it may further shock the weak exports and pose a negative impact on asset prices as well as financial industries. However, to avoid a trade war and facilitate economic restructuring, we think the authorities would prefer the yuan to appreciate 3-5 percent year-on-year in 2012.

And the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will rise to 6.25 by the end of this year, before it increases to 6 by the end of 2012. After that, the currency rate between the yuan and the dollar is likely to remain stable.

Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank

The capital outflows in October demonstrated that international investors are increasingly worried about the very likely slowdown of China's economic growth over the next year. And they are very concerned about the risks from the loans made to local governments through financial vehicles, and the gloomy capital market.

The most likely destination of these capital outflows is the United States because the dollar is stronger than the euro.

Another factor attributable to a possible depreciation of the yuan lies in the shrinking trade surplus. As the trade surplus continues to narrow in 2012, the appreciation of the yuan will decelerate against the dollar and there will even be a depreciation in the future as a trade deficit develops.