Tougher year looms in 2012

Updated: 2011-12-06 07:09

By Xin Zhiming (China Daily)

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6. Will the yuan appreciate further or depreciate?

Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Securities Co Ltd

Although in recent months the trade surplus of China has declined dramatically and capital outflows have occurred, we predict in 2012 the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will continue to appreciate moderately.

The Chinese government may still hesitate to revalue the yuan faster and more dramatically because it worries that it may further shock the weak exports and pose a negative impact on asset prices as well as financial industries. However, to avoid a trade war and facilitate economic restructuring, we think the authorities would prefer the yuan to appreciate 3 to 5 percent year-on-year in 2012.

And the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar will rise to 6.25 by the end of this year, before it increases to 6 by the end of 2012. After that, the currency rate between the yuan and the dollar is likely to remain stable.

Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank

The capital outflows in October demonstrated that international investors are increasingly worried about the very likely slowdown of China's economic growth over the next year. And they are very concerned about the risks from the loans made to local governments through financial vehicles, and the gloomy capital market.

The most likely destination of these capital outflows is the United States because the dollar is stronger than the euro.

Another factor attributable to a possible depreciation of the yuan lies in the shrinking trade surplus. As the trade surplus continues to narrow in 2012, the appreciation of the yuan will decelerate against the dollar and there will even be a depreciation in the future as a trade deficit develops.

7. Will the Chinese stock market continue to see volatility?

Frank Gong, vice chairman of China Investment Banking at JP Morgan Chase & Co

The valuations of the A-share market have fallen so low that the systemic risk in China's economy may have already been factored into current market prices.

While inflationary pressure will continue to ease, the policymakers are likely to further loosen credit tightening. China could also benefit from lower commodities prices that were pushed down by the poor prospects for the world's economy.

It seems that the most painful period for investors has passed. If the reserve requirement ratio is lowered by the central bank to 18 percent, it may help improve liquidity and trigger a bull run in the market that could last for several years.

Ye Tan, financial commentator and professor at Fudan University

The loosening of China's monetary policy may help boost market sentiment in the short term and improve liquidity in the market. But it cannot help improve corporate earnings.

The volatility in the stock market reflects the fact that investors' confidence remains fragile and the rally triggered by the monetary loosening is unlikely to last long.

A long-term bull run in the market is built on the expectation of good corporate profits and investment returns. What the global economy needs is not money but new growth points. Given investors' clear expectations of poor earnings results of listed companies in the fourth quarter, any rally in the market will likely be short-lived.

8. Will China be hit by a backlash in its energy saving and emission reducing efforts?

He Jiankun, director of the Institute of Low Carbon Economy, Tsinghua University

The Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down, but mainly as a result of macro-control measures. That is a good thing for energy conservation and greenhouse gas emissions.

China set a lower annual economic growth rate at about 7 percent for 2011 to 2015, showing the country's resolution in transforming its economic structure. As a result, energy-guzzling and high-polluting industries will be further controlled.

As the measures that the government introduced to target inflation took effect, the cooling property market also affected the demand for steel, cement and other building materials. The momentum is expected to be sustained. It is also good for energy saving and emission reduction.

Slower growth would be better for China's longer-term sustainable growth prospects and realizing the country's targets for conserving energy and reducing emissions.

China intends to cut energy intensity - energy consumption per unit of GDP - by 16 percent from 2011 to 2015, which means the nation need to achieve an average cut of about 3.2 percent during the next five years.

However, in the first three quarters of the opening year of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), energy intensity fell just 1.6 percent. Tougher measures are expected to be adopted in 2012 to achieve the country's target in energy-saving and emission-reduction.

Christoph Frei, secretary general of the World Energy Council

China is in a new arms race. We have already seen areas of the country affected by brown-outs as the infrastructure developments struggle to keep pace with increased demand.

Only vision-led and coherent energy policies that address the "energy trilemma" will gain public acceptance and investors' trust in delivering a sustainable energy future. This is particularly true in the case of energy efficiency, which is not the "low-hanging fruit" that many commentators have suggested.

China has made significant headway in delivering energy-efficiency programs. The 1,000 Enterprise Program is aimed at reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20 percent over five years. Our findings suggest that this program has contributed to a considerable reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the target enterprises.

As China continues its inexorable growth, becoming the world's No 1 energy consumer, the challenge is to build on these successes and balance the need for energy security and social equity. However, environmental-impact mitigation remains the country's greatest challenge, especially in the context of increased urbanization, with up to 50 megacities projected by 2050.

Potential stresses in the energy-water nexus will need to be carefully monitored. Car ownership is also growing at a rate of 12 percent a year and our transport scenarios will show that clear policies are essential to limit the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

9. Will China see a sharp decrease in foreign direct investment?

Jack Perkowski, founder of JFP Holdings

China will remain a magnet for foreign direct investment in 2012. While all major international companies are already here, most are planning to increase their investments in the country. Moreover, we are now seeing many small and medium-sized companies coming to China for the first time.

For many companies, China's intellectual property rights (IPR) is their biggest concern. However, if these companies truly have a product that is needed in China and they don't manufacture it here it because of the IPR issue, some company in China will eventually figure out how to make it and they will have new competitors anyway.

My advice is to manufacture the product in China so that these companies can meet the competition head-on and be most competitive.

One reason that some international companies feel business is getting more difficult in China is because local companies are becoming stronger and gaining market share month to month.

While many companies may not be as enthusiastic about manufacturing products in China and shipping them back to the United States or Europe because costs in China are going up and the yuan is appreciating against the dollar, they will still want to produce in China in order to gain access to the market.

Li Xiaogang, director of the Foreign Investment Research Center at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences

A new frontier area for attracting investment in 2012 will be the service industry. The Ministry of Commerce and 33 other departments have just released the outline for the service trade development plan during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period.

The volume of service import and export will hit $600 billion over the next five years with an annual growth of more than 11 percent.

For companies with a competitive edge in the service industry, the years ahead will be a golden chance to invest in industries such as healthcare and design as service demand from the domestic market surges. The service industry accounts for only about 40 percent of China's GDP.

Inflows of investment from Europe and the United States slipped in China in 2011, mainly due to their grim economic prospects. Once their crises ease, China will be an attractive destination for direct foreign investment from Europe and the US.

More than 80 percent of foreign companies investing in China prefer to build wholly-owned companies in the country now that China has opened up so much and has enormous growth potential. They want to enjoy all the benefits.

Foreign-invested companies in China are gradually shifting their focus to China's domestic market, which has put greater pressure on China's legal environment. Improvements to the legislative system will be crucial for China to continue to attract foreign investment in the coming years.

10. Will China's local government debt see default on a large scale in 2012?

Jia Kang, director of the Ministry of Finance's research institute for fiscal science

Overall fiscal risks are under control because the authorities have been given a clear picture of the debt scale and are thus more sure about tackling the major risks within it. The 4 trillion yuan ($627 billion) stimulus package in late 2008 has often been criticized for causing the problem, but we should not forget that every penny goes to a worthy cause, such as reconstruction after the Wenchuan earthquake and improvements to Beijing's traffic system.

There are no signs yet of bad debts on a threatening scale. Although 20 percent of local governments at municipal level have a debt ratio of more than 100 percent, it does not necessarily mean they will default given that most of them have strong growth rates.

Even if a default is inevitable, local officials will try every means to fill the hole so as not to affect their track record. For undeveloped areas, the central government will probably come to the rescue.

Charlene Chu, head of China Financial Institutions, Fitch Ratings

The massive influx of liquidity since the crisis has helped corporations meet obligations on previous debt. However, a loose credit policy can't remain in place forever, particularly in an environment of high inflation.

Credit risk has risen from an overextension of loans to local governments and property firms, both of which have questionable medium-term repayment capacity. Off-balance-sheet activity has also grown, adding fire to the credit boom and providing banks with new channels to window-dress financials.

If local governments were to encounter repayment issues, this could extend beyond their obligations to banks to their obligations to contractors and subcontractors of projects etc. In this regard, the entire transport and infrastructure portfolio could be affected.

 

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