Dongqian (displacement) is a fiction about demolition. Its writer Li Xiaoqian is a government official. But this first fiction of its kind by a government official, who has personally experienced the disputes, and even unrest, caused by demolitions, does provide some insight into the many contradictions involved.

What makes the issue of demolition an even greater concern are the remarks by the senior official, who is also an economist, that 50 percent of urban houses will have to be demolished nationwide in 20 years. His argument that houses built before 1949 should all be demolished - except those of historical interest - along with those constructed between 1949 and the late 1970s, and those erected after the 1970s and before 1990, does not sound unreasonable.

He argues that these houses are poor in quality and cannot meet the needs of urban residents. Only those buildings developed by real estate developers after 1990 are sound in quality and will be able to stand for hundreds of years.

The message is that the demolition will continue on an even larger scale in the coming two decades.

If this argument is indeed out of consideration for improving the living conditions of most residents, this official should not turn a blind eye to the fact that the local governments and developers rather than ordinary residents have been the biggest beneficiaries from the demolitions and real estate development in the past two decades.

Another important fact that this official should not ignore is that the new buildings constructed by developers after 1990 are not as sound in quality as he suggests. As we all know, the number of complaints from the public about the quality of new homes has been on the increase in the past years, and, so has the number of news reports that new buildings have collapsed, or are on the verge of collapsing immediately after their completion.

With most local governments standing behind developers and in most cases collaborating with them, how can local governments play the role of watchdog?

So, the first problem that needs to be solved in the country's real estate market is that governments, at all levels, must disengage from their involvement and must have teeth as a watchdog.

This is a prerequisite for demolitions if they are to be in the interest of residents.

The second, is whether those whose homes have been demolished will have better homes in the same area, since most can hardly afford the new homes and have to move to remote suburban areas.

If situation remains unchanged, the demolition and construction will turn out to be a vicious circle - building homes of poor quality and then tearing them down to build new ones. As a result, the cycle of demolition and construction will be nothing more than the way for developers to accumulate wealth and local governments to increase their revenue.

The fact that almost all corrupt officials are involved in dirty deals with developers has added to the complications of the market. We can hardly call such a real estate market a healthy one.

In such circumstances, I can hardly imagine what the situation will be like if 50 percent of urban houses are razed in 20 years, as that official describes.

Even if 50 percent of urban houses do need to be demolished in the near future, I have no confidence in the current capability of local governments to do a good job. There will certainly be much more complicated problems than this writer describes in his fiction Dongqian.

In my own opinion, whether 50 percent of urban houses should be torn down or not should never be a question for discussion until there is a better set of regulations to regulate the current demolition and most local governments can carry out the rules to the letter.

The new regulations for demolition are yet to be adopted by the State Council, more than half a year after public opinion had been solicited for its amended draft version. It is rumored that quite a number of local governments strongly opposed to their adoption.

Believe it or not, there won't be an easy process for their final adoption. Even if the State Council does adopt them, it will be a long way to go before they will be effectively implemented without ever being compromised by local practices.

I believe we need more than fiction to paint for us a real picture of what happens behind and during the process of a demolition project. Before they come out, readers may make do with this one and see where the problems are with what many refer to as barbaric demolitions. Then they can probably come to a conclusion about whether the demolition should be carried out on such a large scale as that official proposes.

The author is a leader writer of China Daily. He can be reached at zhuyuan@chinadaily.com.cn