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By 2015, Asia's cruise industry may see 7 million passengers a year, three times the number previously forecast, according to Soo Kok Leng, chairman of the Singapore Cruise Center, which hosted the first Asia Cruise Terminal Association meeting in Singapore.
Formed in June, it acts as a forum for members to raise standards. Nine of its 12 members, from places like China, South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, attended the one-day meeting at the Amara Hotel.
In his opening speech, Soo said a forecast of 2 million cruise passengers in the Asia-Pacific region by 2015 - published in 2005 by Ocean Shipping Consultants, based in Britain - was "too conservative".
"It underestimates the economic growth in Asia and the pace at which the region's middle class is growing," he added.
Six million to 7 million passengers would be more accurate, assuming that only a tenth of the population in the region becomes middle class by 2015, and cruising penetration rates reach 3.2 percent, he said.
Currently, only 0.05 percent of the 3.5 billion people in the Asia-Pacific region go on cruises, versus 3.2 percent of 330 million people in North America and 1 percent of 500 million people in Europe.
Industry players said the number for the Asia-Pacific region this year has already exceeded the 2 million mark. Hong Kong had 2.15 million cruise passengers in 2005 while Singapore saw a record 1.138 million passing through Harbour Front last year, the most in the terminal's 19-year history.
As such, industry insiders agree that the projection of 7 million passengers by 2015, although high, is not impossible to attain.
There is also the growing China market, which will get a boost when the nation's biggest terminal in Shanghai is completed in early 2011.
Still, there are challenges, said a Royal Caribbean International spokesman, citing the need to build greater awareness of cruising as a vacation option and the development of infrastructure to handle bigger ships.
The $382 million International Cruise Terminal in Marina South, which will double the cruise berthing capacity, is due to open at the end of 2011.
Soo said that with Asia's strong economy outpacing the West after the global financial crisis, the industry in Singapore is expected to make bigger waves.
In November, it was reported that Star Cruises and Silversea Cruises had seen a 30 percent jump in passenger numbers from Singapore in 2010, compared to 2009.
Noting Asia's 5 percent share of the global market, he said it can go further and be the "Caribbean of the East", given the similar all-year sailing conditions and variety of ports and destinations.