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Sino-US ties at a crossroads

By Yuan Peng (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-01-18 07:54

President Hu Jintao is paying a state visit to the United States from Jan 18 to 21 at the invitation of the US President Barack Obama. If Deng Xiaoping's historic visit to the US in 1979 set the stage for Sino-American relations and former president Jiang Zemin's groundbreaking state visit in 1997 prepared the framework and guideline for bilateral ties for the 21st century, then President Hu's visit at this critical juncture of transforming international system and China-US relations will set the tone for future ties between the two sides. In this sense, Hu's visit will undoubtedly be historic.

The dramatic ups and downs in China-US ties since Obama took office indicate they are standing at a historical crossroads. The changing relative strengths of the two countries, variations in the US' political ecology and the shift in the international system and regional framework have given bilateral ties a new meaning.

Comprehensive and profound strategic competition and rising risks of strategic contests between the two sides, if not regulated effectively and timely, may cause bilateral ties to deviate from the right path, and even lead to all-out confrontation, which is not what is desired and would certainly be agonizing for the financial crisis.

No wonder, authorities and strategic communities in both countries are trying to resolve the issues in the best possible way. Obama's visit to China in November 2009 and the China-US Joint Statement issued then can be seen as a joint effort to stabilize bilateral ties.

Hu's visit reflects the Chinese leadership's will to promote comprehensive cooperation with the US. Such reciprocal visits, together with the frequent meetings between the two sides at different multilateral gatherings, show that they are committed to maintaining peace and stability and exploring ways to deepen strategic mutual trust.

The framework that has been guiding China-US ties for more than 30 years cannot fully meet the requirements of bilateral relations in the new era. Many far-sighted US figures, including former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, have said that Beijing and Washington should renew their relationship framework through new political documents. So, there is reason to believe that Hu's visit will help to hammer out an overall arrangement for the establishment of a long-term and stable strategic bilateral framework.

The fluctuations in bilateral ties last year damaged the fragile mutual trust and deepened strategic suspicions. To forge a stable framework that truly reflects the will of both sides and bears long-term effects, Hu and Obama should have the ground realities in mind, although the priority for both sides now is to enhance trust and clear doubts.

Some Chinese experts say the Obama administration is changing its strategy toward China to contain Beijing's rise by employing financial, military and diplomatic means and encircling the country geographically. The reason, they say, is the US cannot accept China's rapid rise as a regional and global power.

On the other hand, American strategists say China is becoming more "assertive", "arrogant" and "aggressive", because it believes "the US is declining as a power while China is rising" and "the US needs China more than China needs the US".

China and the US, as well as the international community hope Hu's visit to the US would ensure that instead of turning against each other, the two sides continue to maintain win-win cooperation, expound their real intentions and enhance their mutual trust to get bilateral relations back on the right track.

It is important for the two countries to enhance mutual trust and clear doubts to take bilateral ties forward in the new era. The two major issues standing in the way of smoother bilateral relations are "rebalance" in trade and "reassurance" in security. The US will continue to press China over issues concerning Beijing's financial security and economic development such as the yuan's exchange rate, independent innovation and protection of intellectual property rights. China, on its part, is concerned about getting recognition as a market economy and deregulation of the US' high-tech export policy and issues of mutual benefit.

Whether the two sides can achieve a breakthrough on these issues depends on Washington's will to abide by the basic principle of not politicizing economic issues and handling problems with the overall global situation and mutual benefit in mind.

On the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, China and the US share the same goal, the goal of maintaining peace and restoring stability and prosperity to the peninsula. They, however, differ on the means to achieving the goal. For the time being, they cannot agree on the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. But to maintain stability and to bury the Cold War mentality in Northeast Asia once and for all, the US has to show greater tolerance and understanding.

When it comes to arms sales to Taiwan, the US is still obsessed with petty interests and ignores the overall situation. Hu's visit is thus expected to set bilateral relations rolling in the right direction again.

That does not necessarily mean the future will be smooth. With increasingly close interests and binding gains and losses, competition and rifts between the two sides cannot be avoided. Old problems concerning US arms sales to Taiwan, the insistence of US presidents on meeting with the Dalai Lama, human rights issues and ideological differences still exist.

New problems in terms of navigation in seas, outer space and network security have been emerging. The two sides are divided over the reforms in the United Nations, global financial system, climate order construction and other issues of global significance, too.

That's why it is very important to continue regular high-level exchange visits, and contacts between the two countries' strategic, business and military circles, and peoples. Such arrangements are needed to deepen and expand existing cooperation mechanisms and view the changes in bilateral relations in a rational and healthy way.

The author is director of the American Studies Center at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing.

(China Daily 01/18/2011 page10)