"It's a heavy blow," said Feng Fusheng, deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Confectionary Industry Association. According to Feng, at least 40 percent of mooncake sales were formerly accounted for by bulk purchases by companies and institutions as gifts for clients.

Although it is hard to say how much of the 40 percent will "disappear", Feng estimated that mooncake sales are already down 20 percent.

Sales at five-star hotels may be down even more. A manager of a mooncake factory in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, told the local newspaper, Modern Express, that orders from five-star hotels are down 30 percent year-on-year.

In Shanghai, some five-star hotels have sold less than 30 percent of their mooncake coupons, even though these haughty establishments are offering discounts of up to 40 percent, the Shanghai Evening Post reported.

The China Association of Bakery and Confectionery Industry estimates that 280,000 tons of mooncakes will be baked this year, and sales are likely to exceed 16 billion yuan ($2.6 billion).

But because of higher material and labor costs, which the association estimates are up 10 percent, and the central government's policies, sales are likely to show a 20 percent decline.