Ward off capital risks
Updated: 2013-06-19 08:28
(China Daily)
|
||||||||
The yuan keeps rising, inter-bank rates have shot up, and foreign exchange purchases have slumped, such conflicting trends have caused worries among puzzled China watchers. But are such fears justifiable?
The yuan hit new highs on Monday in terms of the official central parity rate, rising to 6.1598 against the US dollar before edging down on Tuesday. It has risen by more than 2 percent since the start of this year.
While the economic fundamentals are out of line with the currency appreciation momentum, the fast pace of yuan revaluation is also in contrast to the money market conditions. The interest rates that Chinese banks charge each other for short-term loans unexpectedly surged recently, indicating a sudden liquidity shortage that demands central bank intervention.
New foreign exchange purchases, which are a main gauge of money inflows, also slumped to 67 billion yuan ($10.9 billion) in May, compared with nearly 300 billion yuan in April.
The stock market, meanwhile, has also shown prolonged weakness in recent trading days.
Some analysts have said the diverging trends of yuan appreciation and liquidity tightness show that the attraction of the rising yuan to foreign capital is on the wane and there could be an unaffordable capital exodus that results in a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
Admittedly, some international capital is flowing out of the emerging-market economies, including China, due to the sustained improvement in the economic fundamentals of the United States. Despite a capital drain, the world's second-largest economy remains capable of handling it given its sound fundamentals.
The Chinese economy continues to expand at more than 7 percent, a rate that is the envy of many other countries and its exports continue to grow, while its consumption remains resilient.
More importantly, it has ample foreign exchange reserves - $3.44 trillion by the end of March - to ward off the risks of a large-scale capital exodus.
China is undoubtedly facing multiple challenges. For example, local government debts, coupled with shadow banking, are putting its financial stability at risk. Rising housing prices also serve as a Sword of Damocles over its economic stability.
It is advisable for policymakers to closely monitor the international capital market changes. Still, it is premature to worry about any immediate dangers from capital outflows.
- 7 injured at Beckham event
- A science class from above Earth
- Chinese telecom companies call on Myanmar
- June PMI signals weakness
- Rising demand sends producers overseas
- Michelle lays roses at site along Berlin Wall
- Historic space lecture in Tiangong-1 commences
- 'Sopranos' Star James Gandolfini dead at 51
Most Viewed
Editor's Picks
Pumping up power of consumption |
From China with love and care |
From the classroom to the boardroom |
Schools open overseas campus |
Domestic power of new energy |
Clearing the air |
Today's Top News
China urges resumption of six-party talks
SEC charges China-based firm with fraud
Bank of China denies monetary default report
Snowden's future hangs in balance
China reiterates support for the UN
Dairy measures start at source
June PMI signals weakness
Drug-related crimes on the rise in Xinjiang
US Weekly
Geared to go |
The place to be |