China's GDP to overtake US in 2022
Updated: 2013-11-21 15:54
By Yang Ziman (chinadaily.com.cn)
China's GDP is expected to exceed that of the United States in 2022, according to a report by Standard Chartered Bank forecasting the global economic outlook in 2030.
The report, released on Thursday, said that the success of China's reform holds the key to its economy, which will grow at a rate of 7 percent between 2013 to 2020 and 5.3 percent between 2021 to 2030.
Emerging economies, which account for 38 percent of the world's GDP, will see that share increase to 63 percent in 2030, it added, as the world trade volume will grow fourfold to $75 trillion by 2030.
Urbanization and an expanding middle class, particularly in Asia, will be the major engine for the world economy.
The aging population in emerging countries, however, may hinder development.
For China, where the labor force is shrinking and therefore pushing up incomes, enterprises may find it more profitable to invest in high value-added products.
Faster growth in the United States will be the prerequisite for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, which will facilitate exports and push up commodity prices, the report said.
In the long-run, Standard Chartered Bank predicts that 10-year US treasury yields will increase to 4.5 percent.