If opinion polls are to believed and going by the right-leaning Israeli society, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should register a comfortable win in the election to the 19th Knesset on Jan 22. And since there is little doubt over the outcome of the election, the question to answer is what kind of foreign policy Israel will adopt after the election.

Netanyahu has said preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon will be on top of his agenda if he is re-elected. In fact, Netanyahu called for an early election mainly because of the Iranian nuclear issue.

In February 2012, Iran unveiled a new-generation centrifuge for uranium enrichment, drawing criticism from Israel and many Western countries. Israel insists that Iran may have enough material to build a nuclear weapon by the summer of 2013. To stop Iran from reaching the "final stage" of the process, Israel has even threatened to launch a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

By holding the election ahead of schedule, Netanyahu and the Likud Party want to take full advantage of their high approval ratings to first focus on solving domestic issues and then to prepare for an "attack" on Iran.

But factors against a possible Israeli military strike are growing. For example, the likelihood of the United States endorsing Israel's action is diminishing.

Barack Obama will be sworn in as US president for a second term a day before the election to the Israeli parliament, and since he has the fiscal cliff and the gun control problem at home, and the Syrian crisis to deal with, the Iranian nuclear issue may not be on top of his agenda. Also, it's no secret that Netanyahu and Obama do not enjoy a harmonious relationship. When Netanyahu visited the US to draw a "clear line" on Iran's nuclear program, Obama said that he was trying to ignore the "noise" being created by Israel, and that sanctions against Iran were working and there was still "time and space" for a diplomatic and political resolution to the issue.

Another development to Israel's chagrin is the nomination of the next US secretary of defense. Despite the strong opposition of some Republican senators, Obama has chosen former Republican senator Chuck Hagel, known for his anti-war and disarmament stance, as the next secretary of defense. Since Hagel opposed the US-led war in Iraq, refused to impose sanctions on Iran, and is considered unfriendly toward Israel, his nomination has irked some Republican legislators and conservative pro-Israel groups.

Besides, if Iran's recent steps to reach out to the international community succeed in reaching a comprehensive agreement on its nuclear issue, it could make an Israeli military strike an act "without just cause".

On Jan 16, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said the religious decree issued by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banning nuclear weapons is binding on the Iranian government. Khamenei said Tehran is not seeking to build atomic weapons and the possession of such weapons is not only a "sin" but also "useless, harmful and dangerous".

Moreover, Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June this year. And some Western countries hope to use the leadership transition in Iran and the differences among the country domestic political forces to impede the progress of its nuclear program instead of launching a military strike.

Given the difficulties in taking military action against Iran, Netanyahu has to continue his hard-line policies toward the Palestinians. In November, Israel began a widespread campaign, called "Pillar of Defense", in the Gaza Strip. After the United Nations General Assembly approved the de facto recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state in November, Netanyahu ignored international opposition to order the expansion of existing Jewish settlements in the West Bank and build more houses for Jews in occupied east Jerusalem.

His move not only drew strong criticism from the Palestinians, Arab countries and the international community, but also jeopardized the chances of renewing the peace process in Middle East. Israel's hard-line stance on the Palestinian issue, combined with the result of the test on exhumed body of late Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat for poisoning, the relative calm between Israelis and Palestinians after the "Pillar of Defense" operation is likely to be shattered again. And it is highly likely that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia will unite to start a new round of anti-Israel campaign.

An anti-Israel campaign, in turn, will help Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood to consolidate their position and could even enhance their image globally. And an escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could ease the pressure on Syria's Bashar al-Assad government, possibly the only ally of Iran in the region, which would not help Netanyahu in his efforts to stop Iran from continuing its nuclear program.

So it is likely that an increasingly right-leaning Israeli society and the re-election of Netanyahu will compel Israel to adopt an even tougher foreign policy. But by flexing its muscle, Israel may not be able to garner the expected international support to launch a military strike against Iran. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the hard-line tactics of Netanyahu will help Israel in the long run.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 01/21/2013 page9)