Venezuela has, among other things, two distinct attributes. It is the birthplace of Simon Bolivar, father of Latin America's independence movement and a symbol of revolution, liberation and unity. And it is an oil-rich country.

As an iconic figure of the Latin American left, Hugo Chavez focused on Venezuela's two distinct attributes during 14 years of his rule. His anti-US diplomacy, alliance with Latin American leftists and efforts to build a socialist society in Venezuela made Chavez a remarkable leader and, to a large extent, changed the political landscape of Latin America. And despite many international media outlets' attempt to paint him as a controversial leader, he will remain a symbol of Venezuela and an important figure in the rise of the Latin American left.

Chavez proposed to replace US hegemony with multilaterism and "Washington Consensus" with Bolivarianism, and his influence will continue to help drive Latin American countries on the path of development.

Venezuela is now in political transition, which will test the political legacy of Chavez, who used his "oil diplomacy" and alliance with the Latin American leftist camp to pursue diversification in foreign relations. Whether his anti-American diplomacy, Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas and Caribbean oil plans will pass the test remains uncertain for two reasons.

First, the Latin American integration plan advocated by Chavez is not sustainable in the long run because it depends on exporting Venezuelan oil to Latin American countries at a favorable price and provide them with other economic assistance, which have created a financial burden for Caracas.

Second, the current political transition and future political changes in Venezuela will be critical political factors in changing its foreign policy.

According to the Venezuelan constitution, the country has to hold the presidential election within 30 days of Chavez's death, and Nicolas Maduro, the acting president and Chavez's chosen successor, is widely expected to win it. And though domestic economic difficulties may prompt the new government to change some of its economic and foreign policies, they will not alter Venezuela's diversified diplomatic strategy, which will consolidate the unity and deepen the cooperation among Latin American countries and develop the strategic partnerships with China, Russia and other emerging powers.

The influence of the US, Latin American countries and the Latin American left on Venezuela's political transition, however, cannot be ignored. But despite its declining influence in Latin America, the US is not likely to interfere much in Venezuela because the latter does not pose any substantial threat to US national security and its political transition is taking place under a democratic framework.

Besides, the support of Latin American countries for Venezuela will offset the US' influence. And since the US needs to handle matters within the framework of the Organization of American States, it may not allow its rift with Venezuela to stop it from improving relations with the rest of Latin America.

As far as Venezuela-US relations are concerned, the future points to certain possibilities. The tense relations between Caracas and Washington are likely to ease, even though diplomatic ties between the two countries are yet to normalize. The degree of progress will depend on the diplomatic game the two countries play and their domestic political demands. But owing to Venezuela's political and economic stability, and oil security, the new government may ease its anti-US stance, drawing a similar response from Washington.

Since oil plays a key role in both countries' economic and political policies, it will help prevent bilateral relations from worsening. Plus, the US could review its policy toward Venezuela with an eye on its overall interest in Latin America. But if for any reason the US bans oil imports from Venezuela, the latter's economy could get into trouble. The US' geopolitical and strategic interests in Latin America, however, demand that Venezuela continue to enjoy its political, economic and social stability.

The security of Venezuela's oil exports and the US' oil imports are, to a certain degree, interdependent. Venezuela is still the third largest source of crude oil for the US. The US remains Venezuela's largest trading partner and has invested about $12 billion in Venezuela, while Venezuela has an investment of about $4 billion in the US. The US is also Venezuela's largest source of trade surplus and has a decisive influence on Venezuela's international balance of payment and foreign exchange reserve accumulation.

Oil diplomacy is an important strategic tool of Venezuela's foreign policy, and it has been trying to diversify its oil exports and tap new investment partners to free itself of US dependence. But it has not been able to do so despite the success of its strategy and the resultant increase in exports to Asian and Latin American countries.

Given the situation, the new Venezuelan government is likely to secure its oil exports and financing sources, as well as ensure the smooth import of important commodities to overcome its economic difficulties. Therefore, apart from maintaining ties with its leftist allies in Latin America, it will also want to expand its economic and trade cooperation with China, Russia and other major powers.

Improvement in US-Venezuela relations, however, remains a tricky issue because despite hoping to maintain cooperation with Caracas in drug control, anti-terrorism, security and other matters, Washington will continue its hard-line stance on issues such as democracy and human rights.

But Chavez's death will not alter the unity and cooperation mechanism of Latin America, and the region will continue to tread a development path suitable to regional conditions. As a region with a number of emerging economies, Latin America's global influence has continued to rise in recent years, which should make it more confident to work for regional development and an independent foreign policy, which Chavez had been working for.

The author is an associate professor with the Institute of Latin American Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 03/12/2013 page10)