China's industrial output expanded at a faster rate in April to 9.3 percent year-on-year, up from 8.9 percent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Month-on-month growth in April, which reached 0.87 percent, was the fastest since May 2012, showing that factory output has rebounded slightly.

During the first four months of 2013, industrial output increased by 9.4 percent year-on-year, according to the bureau.

The western region saw the fastest industrial growth rate of 10.8 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the central areas and 1.9 percentage points above the eastern region.

In line with rebounding industrial production, power generation also picked up in April to 6.2 percent, from a seven-month low of 2.1 percent in March, according to the bureau.

Growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in April accelerated to 12.8 percent, a three-month high, compared with 12.6 percent in March.

But growth in fixed-asset investment declined from January to April from 20.9 percent to 20.6 percent. It was 21.2 in the first two months.

Stronger credit and monetary support has yet to be translated into faster growth, and sustainable economic development can no longer depend solely on monetary policy easing. Instead, the risk of excessive production capacity may increase, said Liu Ligang, chief Chinese economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

Property market restrictions may take their toll on fixed-asset investment, and it may remain weak in the coming months, a report from Moody's Analytics Inc said on Monday.

A housing market slowdown will also dampen industrial production, according to the report.

Moody's said that the upturn in the investment cycle has yet to be translated into higher production. But an uptick in investment will emerge, due to increased infrastructure construction in utilities.

"If rising credit demand is any guide, the investment cycle will turn upwards."

Li Daokui, a former adviser to the central bank and now a professor at Tsinghua University, said on Monday that the government will take measures to prevent an out-of-control economic slowdown this year.

"Maintaining stable growth still remains policymakers' most important task.

"The minimum GDP growth rate that the government can tolerate will be 7 percent, which can ensure stable employment growth," said Li.

"Chinese economic growth is still stable so far, although the prediction for GDP growth has been lowered to 7.8 percent from 8.3 percent in 2013," Eric Fishwick, head of Economic Research of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a global brokerage and investment group, said on Monday at a forum in Beijing.

It is impossible that China will suffer a recession in the coming months, "but we should pay much more attention to the enlarging shadow banking system", Fishwick said.

Wang Tao, chief economist in China at UBS AG, said: "In recent weeks, the government at various occasions signaled that while stabilizing growth is one of the top objectives this year, reform and liberalization to unlock autonomous growth and reducing financial risk are also high on the agenda."

Wang didn't expect the government to ease monetary policy further or launch any new stimulus this year, as the central bank is still focusing on increasing corporate leverage and complex financing activities at the local government level.

"The tighter regulations on shadow banking are expected to slow credit growth modestly in the coming months," said Wang.

China's fiscal revenue rose 6.1 percent year-on-year in April to 1.14 trillion yuan ($183.87 billion), while expenditure jumped 18 percent, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

chenjia1@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily 05/14/2013 page13)