Iran springs a promising surprise

Updated: 2013-06-20 07:38

By He Wenping (China Daily)

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The victory of moderate leader Hassan Rouhani in the June 15 presidential election in Iran - in which he routed hard-line conservatives by garnering more than 50 percent of the votes - reflects Iranian people's strong desire for change.

The United Nations and the world's major powers, including the United States and the European Union, have responded positively by congratulating Rouhani in the hope that the new Iranian government would cooperate with them on a range of issues, including the resumption of the stalled nuclear talks.

But one would be naive to expect post-Mahmoud Ahmedinejad Iran to take a U-turn in its foreign policy. We should not forget that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say in the country's key policies, such as relations with major powers and the nuclear issue, with the president's role being reduced to that of the executor.

Khamenei may have loosened his control over some economic and social spheres in recent years, but he has maintained his firm hold over foreign and military policies, which involve national security. Khamenei is one of the most experienced leaders in the Middle East, and his absolute authority in Iran is beyond challenge. Not even the most powerful group in the country can challenge his authority. That a number of candidates in last week's presidential election were Khamenei loyalists is a case in point.

But that none of the candidates Khamenei endorsed won the presidential election indirectly illustrates that despite being the most powerful leader, he cannot have his way in all major matters.

Rouhani may cash in on his high popularity and the favorable international response he has got to establish his position. He is also likely to fine-tune Iran's set policies such as its firm stance on peaceful use of nuclear energy. But for now he has ruled out abandoning his country's uranium enrichment program.

The president-elect has to immediately work out measures to promote domestic economic growth in order to meet the Iranian people's desire for change and to improve their living standards. The Iranian economy has been hit by one Western sanction after another. As a result, its oil revenues are declining, prices of imported goods are soaring and its currency is depreciating. Besides, Iran's inflation is as high as 40 percent and its unemployment rate over 20 percent.

Since sanctions are the West's reaction to Iran's nuclear program and the cause of its economic difficulties, Rouhani has to take measures that would prompt the West to ease, if not lift, those sanctions. For this, Rouhani has to show flexibility in Iran's uranium enrichment policy.

In fact, Rouhani is adept at dealing with Western countries on the nuclear issue. As Iran's top nuclear negotiator from 2003 to 2005 under former president Mohammad Khatami, Rouhani and his team reached an agreement with the United Kingdom, France and Germany on a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. At that time, Teheran had agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment program to ease international pressure.

In the course of his presidential campaign and after winning the election, Rouhani has pledged to improve relations with the international community, hoping to mend ties with Western countries to break Iran's international isolation. He has even promised to restore diplomatic ties with the US, which severed relations with Iran after the 1979 revolution and seizure of the US embassy by Islamic students.

Encouragingly, the White House has responded by saying that it was ready to engage with the new Iranian government on the diplomatic level to break the stalemate in the nuclear talks.

It is heartening to see Iran and the international community both make goodwill gestures to resume negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. But the issue will still be difficult to resolve because the fundamental differences between Teheran and the West hardly seem to be narrowing. At least in the short term, we should not expect any substantial breakthrough.

Another tough diplomatic challenge facing Rouhani is how Iran should respond to the Syrian crisis.

The US administration, claiming that the Bashar al-Assad government has used chemical weapons in Syria's civil war, has decided to broaden its aid, including military support, to Syrian opposition groups. And Egyptian President Morsi Mohamed has decided to cut off diplomatic relations with Damascus and urged Western powers to impose a no-fly zone on Syria.

So it is likely that as a strategic ally of Syria, Shiite Iran will wholeheartedly support the Bashar al-Assad government, and continue to strive for regional leadership and try to influence Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-ruled Islamic countries by playing an important role in the Syrian crisis.

The author is a senior fellow at the Chahar Institute and a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily USA 06/20/2013 page12)

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