China's debt has just turned a corner

Updated: 2015-04-08 07:39

By David Mann(China Daily)

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The second reason to be a bit more upbeat about China is the sign of positive sentiment among property developers. Results of our recent property market survey of 30 companies in five major cities across China - which we have been running twice a year since 2010 - indicate that the industry will be in better shape by the second half of this year, which bodes well for China's growth.

Developers believe the excessive amount of inventory in lower-tier cities will be worked through by the second half of this year. They also anticipate better appetite for investment in land among their peers before the end of this year. This is good news, too, given the drag on GDP growth from the sector recently.

Finally, our survey of more than 600 small and medium-sized enterprises across China showed a slight improvement in sentiment in January from a low in December. The results indicate that this optimism is being supported by broad-based policy easing in the country. And, as we expect to see more monetary easing in the form of at least two more reserve requirement ratio cuts and a further lowering of policy rates, business confidence could continue to improve.

While we all should be getting used to China's "new normal" of slower growth, we should not be worried about the slowdown deepening even further in 2015 and 2016.

There are many reasons to be less bearish on China than the present consensus, and the fact that there is no unsustainable credit booming, taking off again in China, or anywhere else in the world's major economies, should be a source of relief.

The author is head of Macro Research, Asia, Standard Chartered.

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