The trade deficit in the United States probably narrowed in May as falling crude oil prices and weakening demand helped trim the import bill, economists said before a report this week.

The gap shrank to $48.5 billion from $50.1 billion in April, according to the median forecast of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey before a Commerce Department report due on July 11. Cheaper energy also helped push down wholesale prices in June for a third consecutive month, another report may show.

A faltering global economy, which led central banks from Europe to China to cut interest rates and announce more stimulus on July 5, may also mean fewer purchases of US-made goods. At the same time, a lack of US hiring that helped prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy last month may also temper demand for imports.

"The stress lines in the global economy are going to hurt exports," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics Inc in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "US demand is soft. Fed policy makers are nervous."

American employers added fewer workers to payrolls than forecast in June and the jobless rate stayed at 8.2 percent as the economic outlook dimmed, Labor Department figures showed on July 6. The 80,000 gain in employment followed a 77,000 increase in May. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 100,000 rise.

A tepid labor market helps explain why US citizens are less optimistic. A measure of sentiment from the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan was little changed in July at 73.5 after a June reading of 73.2 that was the lowest this year, the survey median shows.

The Fed last month expanded a program to extend the maturities of assets on its balance sheet and said it stands ready to take further action to put unemployed US citizens back to work. Minutes of the central bank's two-day meeting, to be released on July 11, may shed more light on its decision.

The outlook for exports remains dim. The Bank of England, which announced on July 5 that it would restart buying bonds two months after stopping, said output will likely remain sluggish after contracting in the past two quarters. The European central bank the same day cut its main rate to a record low as sovereign debt turmoil threatens to drive the 17-nation euro economy into a recession.

Cooling overseas demand is hurting US companies such as Harley-Davidson Inc. A pickup in the value of the dollar against the euro, which makes US-made goods less attractive to overseas buyers, is also among reasons the biggest US motorcycle maker said first quarter sales fell 1.1 percent.

(China Daily 07/09/2012 page14)