Share performances reflect market confidence in economic recovery

Natural disasters can be a major test for any nation's economic resilience.

Had Sichuan province been a country in its own right, its economy might now be facing devastation for the second time in a handful of years, after the 7-magnitude quake in Ya'an over the weekend.

The first was in 2008, when it was hit by the 8-magnitude super killer quake in Wenchuan.

But in reality, Sichuan can rely on economic support from all over China, orchestrated by the central government, and share performances on Monday reflected overall market confidence that its economy will recover from the latest shock.

Both Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets remained largely flat, but some shares seen as closely related to the events in Sichuan, did react, particularly cement, construction materials, and medical stocks.

Initial official estimates are that about 400,000 houses in Ya'an have been damaged, of which 12,850 have been flattened.

Joined by the extensive destruction of farm resources and public infrastructure, the total economic loss is being estimated at 1.43 billion yuan ($230 million).

Yang Weixiao, a senior macro and fixed income analyst at Lianxun Securities Beijing, suggested the final loss could be much bigger, "somewhere between 10 and 20 billion yuan".

Losses from the Wenchuan earthquake have been estimated at 845 billion yuan.

Of all the listed companies either based in, or with hefty business interests in Sichuan, 91 released initial damage reports to the market on Monday.

Most claimed minimal financial effect, with only New Hope Group, a major feed producer in China, announcing anything significant - an estimated 25 million yuan loss from around a dozen production facilities in the province.

By the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.11 percent to end at 2,242.17 and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.59 percent to 9,057.62.

But seven Sichuan-linked companies were suspended for trading, after their share prices soared to the daily limit of 10 percent at opening.

Sichuan Expressway Co's share price shot up 10.13 percent to 3.48 yuan per share before trading was suspended.

The company refused to comment on the price movement.

Shares in Chongqing Iron & Steel Ltd also jumped 10.18 percent to 3.03 yuan per share elevating its PE ratio to 53 times.

A staff member for the company said: "We have no idea of the reason for the performance of our shares."

Another construction-related company, Sichuan Shuangma Cement Ltd, saw its share price surge 10.07 percent to 7.54 yuan apiece, with a PE ratio of 140.67 times. Its stock price was closed at 6.85 yuan per share last Friday.

The company said in an announcement that it did not receive any reports of injury among its staff or damage in its facilities.

The profit earnings of Shuangma have been below expectations for some time, with its stock price sliding since 2011, and Zhang Qi, analyst with Haitong Securities Co Ltd Shanghai, said he expected Monday's rise to be temporary.

Many suppliers of medicine, cement and construction materials, though based outside Sichuan, saw their stock prices rise on Monday.

The stock price of Shandong Lukang Pharmaceutical, one of the country's main producers of penicillin, reached its daily limit of 10 percent rise to close at 5.49 yuan per share.

Huang Tiantian contributed to this story.

shijing@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily 04/23/2013 page14)