Stocks shunned for safety of US dollar

Updated: 2011-12-02 07:39

(China Daily)

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SINGAPORE - The dollar was the best place for investors to be in November, beating returns on worldwide bonds, commodities and stocks as Europe's debt crisis threatened to derail global growth.

The Dollar Index tracking the US currency against six foreign-exchange peers rose 2.9 percent last month, leaving it down less than 1 percent for the year. Even as Treasuries gained 0.7 percent, fixed-income securities around the world lost 0.5 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Total Return Index of commodities rose 1.4 percent, and the MSCI All Country World Index of shares fell 2.9 percent with dividends.

"There's been a flight to quality, which means investors are keeping their money in US dollars and Treasuries," said Sean Callow, a Sydney-based senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. "The US hasn't been a bad bet, whether you're on the safe-haven side or you see signs of life in the economy," he said in a phone interview on Tuesday.

Contagion in Europe's debt markets spread to Italy last month, boosting yields to euro-era record highs, and curbed demand for German bunds. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this week cited doubts about the survival of Europe's monetary union as the main risk to the world economy.

IntercontinentalExchange Inc's Dollar Index rebounded from a 3 percent loss in October to 78.388 as of Wednesday, and it's up from the low this year of 72.696 in May. It will climb to 80 by year-end, Callow said.

Dollar forecasts

The US currency will trade at $1.35 on Dec 31 against its 17-nation European counterpart, from $1.3446 on Wednesday, and 77 versus Japan's currency from 77.62, according to the median estimate of strategist and economists in Bloomberg surveys.

The euro fell 2.97 percent against the dollar in November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The yen advanced 0.71 versus the dollar, even after Japan sold its currency for the third time this year on Oct 31 and Finance Minister Jun Azumi indicated he may do so again.

The Brazilian real was the biggest loser among the 16 most-widely traded currencies, depreciating 5.14 percent.

The haven appeal of US assets has been burnished amid signs of strength in the world's largest economy. The New York-based Conference Board said last month that its index of consumer confidence rose in November by the most since April 2003.

"The favorite strategy will be to locate the cleanest dirty shirts - the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia at the moment," Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund as co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co, wrote in his monthly commentary this week.

Bloomberg News