The road ahead

Updated: 2012-07-20 08:46

(China Daily)

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The road ahead

Experts give their take on the Chinese economy

Joy Yang,

chief economist for Greater China Research, Mirae Asset Securities

GDP growth: 8.1 percent

Inflation: 3-3.5 percent but will bottom out in July at about 1.6 percent

Hard/soft landing: Hard landing unlikely this year but structural reforms are necessary to avoid it within three to five years.

Zhiwei Zhang,

chief economist, China, Nomura

GDP growth: 8.2 percent

Inflation: 2.9 percent

Hard/soft landing: Hard landing is no longer an outside tail risk with a one-in-three chance of it happening in 2014.

Michael Klibaner,

head of China research at Jones Lang Lasalle

GDP growth: N/A

Inflation: N/A

Hard/soft landing: A hard landing is avoidable in the shorter term because of the government's spending power but there is a real a risk within five to seven years if an economic reform agenda is not embraced.

Wang Jun,

deputy director-general, China Center for International Economic Exchanges

GDP growth: 7.5 to 7.8 percent

Inflation: 3 to 3.5 percent

Hard/soft landing: The economy is likely to have a soft landing but there is a deflation risk.

Junwei Sun,

economist, China, HSBC

GDP growth: 8.4 percent

Inflation: 2.9 percent

Hard/soft landing: The danger of an over-correction has receded and a modest recovery over the next two quarters should deliver a soft landing.

Tim Condon,

head of research, Asia, ING Financial Markets

GDP growth: 8.1 percent

Inflation: 3 percent

Hard/soft landing: The Chinese government have proved themselves the masters of avoiding a hard landing so far. The risk is external such as another 2008-style global financial crisis.

Mark Williams,

chief economist, Asia, Capital Economics

GDP growth: 8.0 percent

Inflation: 3.0 percent

Hard/soft landing: The terminology is unhelpful. China is going to have to accept its days of growing at 9 or 10 percent are behind it.

The road ahead

(China Daily 07/20/2012 page4)