World economic growth-still made in China
Updated: 2016-09-05 07:27
By Stephen S. Roach(China Daily)
|
|||||||||
Despite all the hand-wringing over China's slower economic growth, the Chinese economy remains the single largest contributor to world GDP growth. For a global economy limping along at stall speed-and most likely unable to withstand a significant shock without toppling into renewed recession-that contribution is all the more important.
A few numbers bear this out. If Chinese GDP growth reaches 6.7 percent in 2016-in line with the government's official target and only slightly above the International Monetary Fund's latest prediction of 6.6 percent-China would account for 1.2 percentage points of world GDP growth. With the IMF currently expecting only 3.1 percent global growth this year, China would contribute nearly 39 percent of the total.
That share dwarfs the contribution of other major economies. For example, while the United States is widely praised for a solid recovery, its GDP is expected to grow by just 2.2 percent in 2016-enough to contribute just 0.3 percentage points to overall world GDP growth, or only about one-fourth of the contribution made by China.
The European economy is expected to add a mere 0.2 percentage points to world growth, and Japan not even 0.1 percentage points. China's contribution to global growth is, in fact, 50 percent larger than the combined contribution of 0.8 percentage points likely to be made by all of the advanced economies.
Moreover, no developing economy comes close to China's contribution to global growth. India's GDP is expected to grow by 7.4 percent this year, or 0.8 percentage points faster than China. But the Chinese economy accounts for fully 18 percent of world output (measured on the basis of purchasing power parity)-more than double India's 7.6 percent share. That means India's contribution to global GDP growth is likely to be just 0.6 percentage points this year-only half the boost of 1.2 percentage points expected from China.
More broadly, China is expected to account for fully 73 percent of the total growth of the BRICS grouping of large developing economies. The gains in India of 7.4 percent and South Africa 0.1 percent are offset by ongoing recessions in Russia, minus 1.2 percent and Brazil, minus 3.3 percent. Excluding China, BRICS GDP growth is expected to be 3.2 percent in 2016.
So, no matter how you slice it, China remains the world's major growth engine. Yes, the Chinese economy has slowed significantly from the 10 percent average annual growth recorded during the 1980-2011 period. But even after transitioning to the slower growth of what the Chinese leadership has dubbed the new normal, global economic growth remains heavily dependent on China.
There are three key implications of a persistent China-centric global growth dynamic.
First, and most obvious, continued deceleration of Chinese growth would have a much greater impact on an otherwise weak global economy than would be the case if the world were growing at something closer to its longer-term trend of 3.6 percent. Excluding China, world GDP growth would be about 1.9 percent in 2016-below the 2.5 percent threshold commonly associated with global recessions.
- Action, not words needed to lift economy
- Hangzhou summit offers opportunity to reinvigorate global economy: EU leaders
- Business bignames diagnose world economy, praise China's role
- Unlocking potential for the economy
- Chinese president gives prescription to world economy
- China needs to push G20 coordination to invigorate world economy: expert
- China growing at sustainable rates good for global economy: Lagarde
- Hope for Hangzhou to work out new path for world economy
- Rousseff appeals impeachment to Supreme Court
- Europeans displeased with their education systems
- Singapore Zika cases top 150; China steps up arrivals checks
- Artists respond to 9/11 attacks in new exhibit
- Rocket explodes on launch pad in blow to Elon Musk's SpaceX
- Record number of Americans dislike Hillary Clinton: poll
- Commemorative G20 stamps a hit at media center
- Ten photos from around China: Aug 26- Sept 1
- Hangzhou: Paradise for connoisseurs of tea
- Top 10 trends in China's internet development
- Childhood captured in raw, emotive black and white
- Korean ethnic dance drama shines in Beijing
- Children explore science and technology at museum
- Children wearing Hanfu attend writing ceremony
Most Viewed
Editor's Picks
Anti-graft campaign targets poverty relief |
Cherry blossom signal arrival of spring |
In pictures: Destroying fake and shoddy products |
China's southernmost city to plant 500,000 trees |
Cavers make rare finds in Guangxi expedition |
Cutting hair for Longtaitou Festival |
Today's Top News
Trump outlines anti-terror plan, proposing extreme vetting for immigrants
Phelps puts spotlight on cupping
US launches airstrikes against IS targets in Libya's Sirte
Ministry slams US-Korean THAAD deployment
Two police officers shot at protest in Dallas
Abe's blame game reveals his policies failing to get results
Ending wildlife trafficking must be policy priority in Asia
Effects of supply-side reform take time to be seen
US Weekly
Geared to go |
The place to be |