KOLKATA, India - India's Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham) in a recent study said India's merchandise exports would decline in the 2012-2013 financial year.

The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry's earlier forecast a rise of about 15 percent in outbound shipments from $304 billion in 2011-12.

However, the study by the industrial lobby said this year's exports might not even touch last year's levels, owing to the weak demand in global markets. It also said the target of increasing exports to $500 billion by 2013-14 was unlikely to be achieved.

"If the present scenario in the global economy continues, merchandise exports for the current financial year may even decelerate to below $300 billion," it said.

During 2011-12, exports had risen 21 percent over the previous year.

As against earlier projections, the economic scenario in major markets like Europe and the U.S. had not improved, the study pointed out.

"This is a matter of worry. The government must work out some urgent measures to arrest the decline," Assocham president Rajkumar Dhoot said.

While exports registered a year-on-year growth of 3.2 percent in April, in May and June, these figures fell 4.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively.

That led to exports falling 1.7 percent to $75.20 billion in the quarter ended June, against $76.50 billion in the corresponding period of 2011-12.

"The commerce ministry must convene an urgent meeting of stakeholders to figure a way out of this difficult situation," Assocham secretary general D.S. Rawat said, adding "Rather than a few big industrial houses alone, let small exporters also be involved in the consultation process."